Insight From Albon's Contract
Funnily enough, Alex Albon's new deal at Williams teaches us the least about…Alex Albon.
That was the seat available and he took it.
We can infer that Williams was likely the beneficiary of more competitive teams not being interested in Albon and Albon not being interested in swapping for a team closer to Williams in the standings.
It was Peter Windsor who opened the door to Albon returning the Red Bull, citing a source he trusted earlier this year that there was a contract on offer. It looks like that wasn't the case and while Albon may have relished a move back to a car that strong, it always seemed like it was a long shot for stars to align in that manner.
That he wasn't more heavily linked to Mercedes is, I confess, something of a surprise to me. He's a mature and professional racer at a team with significant ties to Mercedes but any connections between the two never really seemed to develop. While the cars coming from Mercedes are far from top contenders, it would have marked a significant upgrade for Albon and thus, we can infer that they probably didn't have much interest in him.
I think that tells us a lot about the German outfit. We know the alternatives.
Max Verstappen is prized above all and, absent a dominant power unit under the new regulations they can use to recruit him, it's impossible to fathom him trading Milton Keynes for Brackley.
Kimi Antonelli is a popular option but he seems like a fallback - the kid you promote when you can't land a bigger fish and you are grudgingly forced to admit you're in the F1 equivalent of a rebuilding phase.
The final and, as I've consistently said, best option for Mercedes is Carlos Sainz. He's the driver Mercedes should be moving heaven and earth to land. If he ends up at Red Bull, it could spell disaster for Mercedes finding a podium without massive relative performance development.
Rumors are to be ignored unless they're coming from great sourcing and even then, should be subjected to logical tests. Those logical tests indicate that Sainz is the hottest commodity and is probably sought after by Mercedes and Red Bull (and Audi who deserve, at most, this parenthetical mention).
Mercedes may well have offered a one-year contract with an additional year option; that passes the logic test as we know they are very hesitant to make significant commitments that could cause them to lose Antonelli.
Who knows what Red Bull may offer but the logic test there is this: how badly does a driver want to be in the same car as Max Verstappen? Self-belief isn't in short supply on the grid, but the execution each of his teammates has faced is well-documented. Go there if you want, but you likely won't be champion.
This tumbling sequence of possibilities is clarified slightly by Albon's new deal and, as I said at the top, we are learning more about everyone else than we are about Albon himself as a result.